ON-DEMAND VIRTUAL CASE STUDY

When Waiting Doesn't Pay:
A CRE Owner's Lesson on Trying to Time the Market with a Maturing Loan

When it comes to refinancing, timing is everything—or is it? In this 20-minute case study, we examine how one mid-market CRE owner/operator held off on refinancing in anticipation of interest rate cuts… only to face an unexpected turn in the market.

GOAL: Wait for rates to drop and refinance closer to their original 5.5% loan.
OUTCOME: The market moved in the opposite direction, resulting in a new 6.5% loan.

Watch our debt experts as they break down what happened and discuss how proactive debt management can help you avoid similar pitfalls in your own portfolio.

Key Takeaways: 

✓  Relying solely on Fed projections is risky—longer-term yields and market sentiment often drive pricing.

✓  Waiting for rate cuts doesn't guarantee lower costs, especially with unpredictable yield curve movements.

✓  Modeling multiple rate scenarios, not just the ideal one, is essential for making informed, risk-adjusted decisions.

✓  Proactively managing debt and aligning loan strategy with asset goals beats trying to time the market.

Meet the Speakers

Shawn Murphy
Director of Deal Management

Director of Deal Management. 10+ years in overseeing execution of financial transactions, from structuring to closing. Expertise: debt optimization, transaction execution, portfolio strategy, CRE finance, structured debt, and risk management. Focus: managing end-to-end lifecycle of deals, lender negotiations, and interest rate hedging to optimize deal terms and align with market conditions. Ensures seamless coordination across internal teams, lenders, and institutional investors to maximize value. 

Matthew Bailey
Senior Capital Markets Analyst

Analyst, Capital Markets. 6+ years in CRE finance, debt structuring, financial modeling, and market research. Expertise: CMBS, interest rate hedging, cash flow modeling, credit analysis, and risk assessment. Focus: supporting deal execution, debt optimization, and market forecasting. Conducts due diligence, scenario analysis, and ensures transactions align with client goals and market conditions. Previously managed asset transfers and provided financial services at Vanguard.

Let's Talk — Zero Pressure, Just Actionable Insights

Whether you're weighing a refinance, reviewing loan terms, or navigating market pressure, our team will provide a live, expert second opinion tailored to your situation. We can review the debt market outlook, assess hedging strategies, model cashflow and debt scenarios, identify ways to optimize your capital stack, or just answer any questions you may have. It’s free, focused, and built to give you clear next steps.